Late on Monday evening, the news broke that the long-serving Laois TD Charlie Flanagan would not be standing in the next election.
The next General Election is scheduled for early 2025 and while it could come even earlier than that, Flanagan’s decision gives his party plenty of time to sort out a replacement.
But there are many factors at play here that make what will happen next very interesting to observe.
Firstly, as has been well reported at this stage, the old Laois-Offaly Constituency has been abolished.
That contained five seats for the two counties but Laois has now returned to a three seat constituency.
We currently have three sitting TDs – Fianna Fail’s Sean Fleming, Sinn Fein’s Brian Stanley and Fine Gael’s Flanagan.
The odds would have favoured a return for all three at the next election as they have performed very well in 2020.
But Flanagan’s departure makes his seat less certain and opens the door to potential suitors – from both within and outside Fine Gael.
In terms of the process to replace him, sources within Fine Gael suggest that this will not be rushed.
As Laois-Offaly has been abolished, the party firstly needs to establish a new constituency organisation – something which is planned for October.
After that, a selection convention could in theory take place at any time after that and before the next General Election takes place.
But sources again indicate that the party’s main focus will be on the Local and European Elections which are scheduled for June of next year.
In that case, it could well be this time next year before a replacement candidate for Flanagan is chosen.
Looking at it now, Fine Gael Councillors, Conor Bergin, Thomasina Connell, Barry Walsh, PJ Kelly, John King and Willie Aird would all have to be in the mix.
While current Local Election candidates Vivienne Phelan (Portarlington-Graiguecullen) and Paddy Buggy (Borris-in-Ossory/Mountmellick) could mount a bid if they have a successful campaign next June.
And of course – Fine Gael could well decide to run two or more candidates in the election too.
Charlie Flanagan received almost 7,500 first preference votes in 2020 and his departure may also give others from different political backgrounds the incentive to run.
Could Sinn Fein win a second seat with a running mate for Brian Stanley?
Could Fianna Fail? Or could we see a strong Independent emerge?
It certainly sets the scene for a far more interesting General Election in Laois than we originally though.
SEE ALSO – Laois to return to a three-seater constituency as Dáil set to increase to 174 TDs
